Revisiting Predictions

This is a repost of my entry on September 5th. Looks like prediction number one is good. I can't wait for number two. I wouldn't be surprised if we get some quotes tonight of pundits and maybe even politicians throwing Romney under the bus. I'll update with those quotes if they happen. Interesting to see my (and I presume others) mindset going from the convention to the debates. Lots more changes happened than I anticipated, but ultimately, it looks as though my electoral college prediction will still be right.



Predictions for the 2012 US Election



The Democratic National Convention is going on right now, and we are just two months away from election day. So what better way to make things go by faster than by throwing out some predictions!

1) Barack Obama will win a second term as President of the United States.

Not the boldest prediction at this point, but it seems pretty reasonable. Even if Mitt Romney gets Florida and Ohio, he will still have quite a long way to go, and I just don't see the campaigns trending that way.  The Republican National Convention didn't give him a huge boost, so really all Romney has left are the debates to win over undecided voters. But the debates look to be a place where Romney will be confronted head on by issues that he has been able to hide from behind a timid media.

2) Once Mitt Romney loses, the right wing media will throw him under the bus.

Do you remember how harshly the right wing media came down on Justice John Roberts when he was the tie-breaking vote for the constitutionality of the Affordable Health Care for America Act? They are not a forgiving bunch. And it's my feeling that if Romney loses you will see a movement even further to the right.

All the defences they've put up to protect him and push him forward will come crumbling down. Do you recall during the primaries how reluctant they were to embrace him? The voters too, yes, but the media played a big role in that as well. Everyone else was getting their chance to be the anti-Romney candidate in 2011. Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich (twice), Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, and Herman Cain.

Look at this graph from Media Matters:

The left side coincides with his official announcement to run for president. Follow that link (or this one) and you'll see that everyone got their chance on Fox News to audition for the chance to be the nominee. And they all rose up, and then fell back down, one after another. And finally it was Herman Cain's sexual harassment scandal that they had had enough. It was clear no one else was going to take it from Romney, and it was like the changed overnight, defending him from attacks from far more conservative nominees because he actually had the most realistic chance of challenging President Obama.

That allegiance, once the election is over (and thus there is no more use for him), will come crashing down, and Romney will be hung out to dry as "not conservative enough."All the defences they have for him now will turn into attacks on why he actually wasn't the right candidate. They will "discover" that Romney actually wasn't the hardcore conservative he said he was, and now if they just find that guy (or girl) then they'll have a real shot for 2016.

3) The Republican Party will shift further to the right.

George W. Bush, love him or hate him, is conspicuously absent from the campaign trail. And good for him, saying he wants to "stay out of the spotlight." Since leaving office, he has remained silent on President Obama's policies for the most part, made an appearance on Oprah, and has enjoyed retirement. He even found time to combat AIDS in Africa.

But what is the real reason George W. Bush is not around? Is it because he is an easy target for blame for the recession? Partly, but I think it is mainly because George W. Bush is no longer a hardcore conservative to the current Republic (Tea) Party. Government did not get smaller under Bush, it got bigger. He proposed immigration reform that was supported by Democrats, but not by his own party. And look at No Child Left Behind. Bush worked with the Democrats to create the act which actually increased education spending nationwide. This kind of talk is absolutely unheard of in today's GOP.

So we will come to whole new 8-year cycle in 2016, and I believe the party will shift even further to the right. Will poster-boy Paul Ryan take the helm? He is a tea-party favourite, but being tied to a losing candidate for President could hurt his image, and he might not do well against Joe Biden in the debates. Jeb Bush? Or someone new? The field is going to be wide open. You won't see all of these big name candidates declining to run for personal reasons like Mike Huckabee and Chris Christie. It is going to be every man for himself, and you are going to see some very different ideologies come forward as the Republican Party tries to shape itself into a modern conservative movement.

Regardless of who the next nominee is, if you hated the endless primary season this time around, you are going to absolutely loathe it next time.



Let me know what you guys think in the comments below. Am I way off? Do you see something different? I'd love you hear all of your opinions!